Prob(eating hot chili on first go) = 1/6
Prob(eating hot chili on second go) = prob(eating mild first) AND prob(eating hot second) = 5/6 * 1/5 = 1/6

So no advantage in first problem to going second.




If there are 2 hot chilis and 6 mild;

Prob(eating hot first) = 1/4
Prob(eating hot second) = prob(eating mild first) AND prob(eating hot second) = 6/8 * 2/7 = 3/14

So there is an advantage to going second in second trial.