Hi, I'm trying to calculate the probability of the number of goals being scored in a football match based on previous results. As I only know Binomial, Poisson and Normal I thought that the only suitable distribution to use would be Poisson. How suitable do you think a Poisson distribution is in this case and could someone please tell me what the conditions of a Poisson distribution are as i have forgotten. Any other help would be greatly appreciated, thanks

Someone knows the answer so please help me.

I am no statistical expert, but I know Poisson Distribution is not suitable for your computation, unless the record showed that the pass performances have very low percent of winning or losing.

Binomial Distribution is you best bet.

Both Poisson and Binomial are close to Normal when your have large enough samples. 30 or more would be better.

Example: If your probability of scoring in the past had been about 3%, Poisson would be suitable. If they are about 20% and up, Binomial would be suitable.

Good luck with your speculation. I hope you will win a suitcaseful of money.