2. There are

total permutations of the

wallets. Now number the wallets from

to

. The first person has a

probability of picking a wrong wallet. You would have to use a computer for this "brute force" approach.
Or let

be the probability that given

people with

wallets,

of them choose the wrong wallet. Then we want

. This is our "black box" case.
We know that

(i.e. probability all people get their wallets). Also by axiom 3 (commonly in textbooks)

. So

is the probability that there are

incorrect wallets chosen and

correct wallets chosen. These are independent events, so we can multiply probabilities. We get

. But this doesn't really give us

. So

. Plugging in values, we get the following formula (there is a pattern, I suppose you could prove it by induction):

.
So

.
Thus

. This is about

.
Then the probability that not all the people take their wrong wallets is

(some people could take wrong wallets, while other people take correct wallets).